Move to FBS: The Landscape

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On August 9, 2007, the NCAA imposed a four-year moratorium on schools attempting to reclassify their divisional status. The moratorium will conclude on August 9, 2011. Programs are not allowed to begin an exploratory year for reclassification until the 2011-2012 academic year. They ARE allowed to seek membership in a new conference.

What does it take for an FCS school to move to the FBS level?   Before the NCAA moratorium was put in place, schools were required to satisfy the following benchmarks in order to qualify for FBS membership:

1. Sponsor a minimum of 16 varsity intercollegiate sports, including football.  Sponsorship requires a minimum of six sports involving all male or mixed teams and a minimum of eight all female teams. 
2. Schedule and play at least 60 percent of its football games against members of the FBS.  Schools should play a minimum of five regular season home games against FBS opponents.
3. Average at least 15,000 in actual or paid attendance at all home football games over a rolling two-year period.
4. Provide at least 90 percent of the permissible maximum number of overall football scholarships over a rolling two-year period.
5. Annually offer a minimum of 200 scholarships or expend at least $4 million in scholarships for student-athletes in athletics programs.

 Here’s a blurb from an article from Championship Subdivision News that references our AD’s opinion on reclassification.

Appalachian State Athletic Director Charlie Cobb, whose school has won three straight FCS National Championships, said facilities are currently a much higher priority than any potential move to the FBS.
Appalachian State is currently spending $50 million to enhance its facilities, including $35 million on 4,500 new seats for the football stadium and a 125,000 square foot athletic complex adjacent to the stadium.

“If you’re going to write anything,” he said, “say that we haven’t spent more than one second trying to decide whether we’re going to move up in the near foreseeable future.”

He pointed to the moratorium and the school’s current budget as reasons to stay in the FCS. Appalachian State currently has an athletic budget of $11 million, about $500,000 less than Montana. Both Cobb and [Montana Athletic Director Jim] O’Day said their budgets would need to be about $16 million to compete in the FBS.

 Where do we go and FBS Conference Realignments

After the most recent shift in conference realignment at the FBS level which was predicated by the trio of Boston College, Miami and Virginia Tech departing from the Big East and joining the ACC, there is still a belief that another shift is on the horizon.  Read here for an interesting take on the perceptions of several FBS conferences before and after realignment.

I’ll get to a fascinating article about the concept of superconferences in a minute, but let’s assume briefly that Appalachian State wants to move to FBS and there are no other changes in conference memberships.  Where does Appalachian go?

The SEC and ACC, conferences which Appalachian could fit well into geographically, are completely out of the question.  Many of these schools, especially those at the upper-echelon, are light-years ahead of the Mountaineers.  Also, if these conferences were considering new members, the Apps wouldn’t even make the list. 

How about the Big East? The Big East only has eight football members, but has sixteen schools competing in basketball.  An offer to join this conference would likely only include football and would require Appalachian to remain in the Southern Conference for all other sports.  Would the SoCon allow this? Would we want that? Also, if the Big East was willing to add a football-only member, it’s likely that a school such as East Carolina would get an invite before App. 

The next possibility is a move to Conference-USA.  Barring a departure from a football member, C-USA is already at twelve schools.  I would not expect a mid-major conference like this one to expand beyond twelve for football.  But, if there was a slot available at C-USA, I believe Appalachian could fit into this league (obviously with an increased budget and improved facilities).  Marshall, which was an Appalachian rival when they both competed at the I-AA level, plays in C-USA and has seen some successes. 

One of the possible conferences that continues to come up is the Sun Belt.  The Sun Belt will have 10 football-playing members by 2013.  Competitively, I think Appalachian would succeed in this league.  However, I think one of the biggest drawbacks to membership in the Sun Belt is the affect it would have on the travel costs of the entire athletic department.  The league includes three schools in Louisiana, two schools in Arkansas and even a school in Colorado (Denver). 

Some people have voiced the possibility of some of the stronger FCS schools located in the Southeast creating their own FBS conference.  Schools such as Appalachian, James Madison, Furman, Georgia State (hasn’t started football yet, but is located in Atlanta, will play home games in the Georgia Dome and will likely grow fast), Georgia Southern and Richmond are potential member schools.  The drawback to this option is that the conference would have to compete without a postseason for its first few seasons before they could gain affiliation with various bowls. 

Superconferences?

Many people at the FBS level believe another round of shake-ups is imminent, especially with conferences developing their own networks and jockeying for television dollars.  Tim Stephens of The Orlando Sentinel wrote this and detailed his vision of the future regarding conference membership. 

Then you take the playoff plunge sometime around 2016, starting with four teams, but perhaps eventually moving to eight teams.

And that leads to the era of the superconference.  Because you can’t have the true playoff with six power conferences having to share their money or playoff bids with five conference hangers-on who don’t generate the money.  Or with Notre Dame getting its own set of rules.  And you can’t maximize the dollars from television by splitting the product inventory 11 conference ways. 

Consolidation becomes a natural market force.  The strong absorb or eliminate the weak.  The weak reorganize or disappear.  Investors throw their resources into the strongest brands. 

As czar, you come up with this:  four major conferences of 16 teams that receive automatic bids to your multi-billion dollar playoff.  They are split into tight eight-team divisions, preserving most natural rivalries and creating mega-dollar championship games.  These conference title games become much more lucrative in your playoff world.  Meanwhile, your geographically compact divisions greatly reduce travel expenses in sports other than football while also stoking regional rivalries.

Stephens believes that schools that don’t become part of the four superconferences will reorganize into other conferences and still compete for bowl slots.  Here’s where Appalachian ends up:

The Sun Belt strengthens its presence with new or upgraded programs in strong mid-sized markets. It will remain a popular league on SEC schedules and will find a niche as a Southern version of the MAC.

East: Appalachian State, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Furman, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Middle Tennessee 

West: Arkansas State, Jacksonville State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, McNeese State, South Alabama, Troy

Interesting, to say the least.  Thoughts?

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Tags: Appalachian State, BCS, college football, FBS, FBS reclassification, FCS, superconferences